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Re: Volatility

By Gustoon
1/14/2017 2:24 am
Volatility has been running for a couple of seasons now and as it stands really don't like it.

From what I have noticed, when it comes to the draft the higher up the board the more chance of your player becoming a bust and quite frankly think I might just opt out of round 1 altogether, rarely do I get a player that isn't a bust.

In MFN32 I've just drafted 8 players and out of those only 2 haven't bombed and they are only fringe players, could we get the volatility tweaked to balance this issue out please?

Re: Volatility

By WarEagle
1/14/2017 7:33 am
Volatility isn't new. It's always been there.

The only difference now is that you can see it.

I try to avoid drafting players in the first round who have a high volatility rating to minimize my risk of drafting a bust (I still find a way to draft busts though...I'm an expert at it).
Last edited at 1/14/2017 7:34 am

Re: Volatility

By lellow2011
1/14/2017 7:36 am
It's mostly worked out great for me, toward the end of the first round and beyond I usually look for high vol players that could become great. Can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs!

Re: Volatility

By Gustoon
1/14/2017 7:57 am
Thanks, I get all that. What I meant is that in the draft, regardless of volatility the higher up you draft it seems the greater chance of landing a bust.
Overall I'd be happy with at least a quarter of drafted players being of some use, I just think at the moment it's too weighted towards bust

Re: Volatility

By WarEagle
1/14/2017 8:13 am
Ok, I misunderstood.

When you said "volatility has been running for a few seasons" I thought you meant us being able to see it. The volatility has actually been running forever.

Now that I understand, I agree with your point.

I think it is too skewed towards bust also.

I'm sure JDB would say something about a bell curve and means and medians, etc.

That probably means that when you take the entire draft class as a whole, 25% boom, 25% bust, and 50% stay about the same. The problem is the 25% that bust seem to all be in the upper tier players.

I understand there needs to be some randomness, but complete randomness is not very realistic either.

When you walk in front of a bus your chances of walking away aren't completely random.


Re: Volatility

By Bryson10
1/14/2017 9:46 am
Some guys that bust are still good or solid everyday players. I get frustrated too with a high pick regressing but it would be even worse if every team had all high rated players after years of drafting. It makes it a much harder process but I find it more rewarding when I do get a star. :)

Re: Volatility

By Mcarovil
1/14/2017 10:15 am
I haven't come across a guy with a volatility of less than ten or so that tanked. Maybe go up a few or down a few points. Even most of my guys with a volatility of 50 or less don't boom or bust. Just a little better or worse.

Re: Volatility

By WarEagle
1/14/2017 10:22 am
Bryson10 wrote:
Some guys that bust are still good or solid everyday players.


They are.

Still, it does seem like the higher picks are more likely to bust than not.

I picked a draft at random to take a closer look. 2023 in CUST-10.

For the first round, 18 out of 32 players declined.

The two biggest busts in the first round were both drafted by Gustoon (-18 and -21 after 2 seasons). Those players also happen to have the highest volatility of any players taken in the first round (96 and 98).

The two players with the lowest volatility both declined too.

FYI

Improved or stayed the same: 14 players
Avg Vol: 40.14 (4 above 50)

Declined: 18 players
Avg Vol: 50.33 (9 above 50)

I'm not sure exactly what these number show, except that there are definitely more busts than not, of course this is only one year's worth of data.




Last edited at 1/14/2017 10:23 am

Re: Volatility

By WarEagle
1/14/2017 10:23 am
Mcarovil wrote:
I haven't come across a guy with a volatility of less than ten or so that tanked. Maybe go up a few or down a few points. Even most of my guys with a volatility of 50 or less don't boom or bust. Just a little better or worse.


Consider yourself lucky. Very lucky.

Re: Volatility

By Bryson10
1/14/2017 10:24 am
That's close to real life if u ask me. I am a big NFL draft guy and the first round is far from a lock. The Cleveland browns love high vol guys, lol
Last edited at 1/14/2017 10:25 am